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March 04, 2025Methanol-to-Jet: Pioneering the future of sustainable aviation fuel powered by the methanol economy
Challenges in the SAF Industry
The aviation industry is responsible for roughly two percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions today. While electric and fuel-cell propulsion technologies remain unsuitable for powering large aircraft in the near term, SAF has emerged as a pivotal solution for reducing emissions in this sector.
While the majority of existing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) supply is dominated by Hydroprocessed Ester and Fatty Acid (HEFA)-based routes utilizing oils, fats and grease as feedstocks, the supply of these feedstocks are expected to limit its long-term substitution potential for fossil jet fuel on the scale required by net-zero plans. There is a particular shortage of low Carbon Intensity (CI) oils, such as Used Cooking Oil (UCO) and tallow.
Enter Methanol-to-Jet (MTJ)
MTJ is a relatively new and fast-growing technology. However, it leverages decades of knowledge in Methanol-to-X processes, including methanol to olefins (MTO), methanol to gasoline (MTG), and other methanol and olefin based-technologies, all of which are relatively established in the refining and petrochemicals industries in a standalone basis.
Common SAF Pathways
One key advantage of MTJ is its feedstock flexibility and availability, leveraging the maturity and versatility of sustainable methanol production pathways. Unlike low-CI HEFA feedstocks, MTJ technologies are not constrained by limited feedstock availability and benefit from an established value chain, as methanol is globally traded and used across various industries, including the rapidly growing marine fuel sector. Sustainable methanol production—particularly bio-methanol and e-methanol—has seen significant growth in recent years, a trend expected to continue in the medium term. As a result, MTJ offers significant potential to decarbonize aviation while complementing other SAF pathways such as HEFA, Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and Biomass Gasification with Fischer-Tropsch (BG-FT).
MTJ also benefits from the existing global methanol logistics network, providing sourcing flexibility without the need for co-location with upstream processes, unlike some alternative SAF production methods. Although production costs are currently higher, e-methanol-based MTJ SAF is expected to achieve significantly lower CI compared to both fossil jet fuel and HEFA SAF. MTJ also provides a transitional solution for existing fossil-based MTO facilities, enabling retrofitting to support sustainable methanol and MTJ production. Methanol, as a highly versatile petrochemical commodity, has applications ranging from chemical derivatives to fuel uses, including its emerging role in marine fuels. This versatility encourages future MTJ facilities to consider backward integration, optimizing production and aligning output with market demands to enhance profitability.
The Future of MTJ
Challenges to the widespread adoption of MTJ include the commercialization of production technology and the relatively high production costs compared to both fossil jet fuel and HEFA SAF. Several commercial-scale MTJ facilities have been announced, each leveraging different feedstocks and renewable energy sources:
- Nacero facility, Penwell, Texas: Plans to use Renewable Natural Gas sourced from dairy farms and landfills as feedstock, with solar energy as its primary renewable energy source.
- meSAF facility, Aalborg, Denmark: Is expected to utilize captured CO2 as its primary feedstock, powered by wind and solar energy.
- Jiutai Group facility, Ordos City, China: Intends to employ CO2 feedstocks in combination with wind energy.
- Shuangyashan SAF Plant, Heilongjiang, China: Is forecasted to rely on biomass as a source of CO₂, supported by wind and solar energy.
Despite these promising developments, none of these facilities are operational yet, underscoring the early stage of MTJ commercialization. Additionally, the MTJ production pathway is not yet approved under ASTM standards, a critical milestone for widespread adoption. Key industry players, including Honeywell, ExxonMobil, and Topsoe, are actively working to achieve certification, which will be important in expanding SAF production pathways and driving the adoption of MTJ technology.
However, the rapid expansion of sustainable methanol capacity may accelerate MTJ commercialization as feedstock availability improves. Furthermore, the European Union's ReFuelEU Aviation initiative, which includes a sub-mandate requiring e-SAF to comprise a portion of the total SAF mandate volume, is expected to provide a supportive policy framework for the adoption of e-MTJ SAF. In parallel, advancements in MTJ technology—such as the development of more efficient conversion processes and advanced catalysts—are projected to drive down production costs over time. Despite these challenges, MTJ represents a significant growth opportunity as a viable SAF pathway, contributing to the aviation sector’s efforts to achieve net-zero emissions.
Find out more…
Biorenewable Insights Methanol to Jet (MTJ) (2024 Program)
This BI report investigates the technical, economic and commercial aspects of methanol to jet (MTJ) technology. Cost of production estimate models and carbon intensity analysis are provided across several regions.
Biorenewable Insights: Fischer Tropsch Processes (2024 Program)
This BI report investigates the latest in Fischer-Tropsch technology in the context of net-zero manufacturing, covering process technology, sustainable process configurations, manufacturing economics, and plant-gate carbon intensity.
Biorenewable Insights Ethanol to Jet (ETJ) (2024 Program)
This BI report investigates the technical, economic and commercial aspects of ethanol to jet (MTJ) technology. Cost of production estimate models and carbon intensity analysis are provided across several regions.
Quarterly Business Analysis: Sustainable Aviation Fuels – Q4 2024
This new report series provides quarterly tracking of profitability and associated metrics in the sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) market, allowing subscribers to benchmark the major technological routes to SAF (HVO, alcohol-to-jet, biomass Fischer-Tropsch and power-to-liquids) by profitability, region, and carbon intensity over time. In addition to rolling output from NexantECA’s in-house cost of production modelling for the different SAF types, the service will provide key market information including product and feedstock prices, capacity developments and regulatory updates, supporting clients in addressing important questions:
- How do the main SAF technologies compare in terms of production cost?
- How do these costs vary for producers in different regions?
- How does the potential for emissions reduction – i.e. carbon intensity – vary between technologies and regions?
- Which technologies and locations offer the highest margins for producers?
- How does feedstock choice impact both carbon intensity and profitability?
- What are the expectations for new competing capacity additions, in terms of scale, technology and location?
- In a regulation driven market, how are current rules being implemented, and what’s on the horizon for new regulations?
The Author...
Andrew Goh, Senior Analyst
About Us - NexantECA, the Energy and Chemicals Advisory company is the leading advisor to the energy, refining, and chemical industries. Our clientele ranges from major oil and chemical companies, governments, investors, and financial institutions to regulators, development agencies, and law firms. Using a combination of business and technical expertise, with deep and broad understanding of markets, technologies, and economics, NexantECA provides solutions that our clients have relied upon for over 50 years.
