Ethanol interest is soaring with expanded applications and new low CI production routes

Bioethanol has been the world’s most widely used biofuel for several decades, but the erosion of gasoline consumption by electrification and fuel efficiency trends means that the product is close to maxing out on its primary addressable market.  However, new production technologies, new end-use applications, and a renewed focus on sustainability and low carbon intensity (CI) are creating significant new opportunities for the ethanol industry.

Bioethanol production remains largely focused on first-generation ethanol (e.g., corn and sugarcane feedstocks).  Concerns about competition with food resources and doubts about the environmental sustainability of first-generation processes, as a well as a search for a sustainable cost advantage over first-generation production methods, continue to motivate the development of advanced ethanol technology. Significant interest is also being seen for emissions-based (CO or CO2) fermentation to ethanol.

New Production Routes Show Significant Decarbonization Potential

One of the easiest ways to lower the CI of ethanol production is to use lower CI feedstocks – in fact there is significant interest in sugarcane ethanol for this very reason. Lower CI first generation feedstocks, while a step in the right direction, will be insufficient for net-zero ambitions as currently embodied. Improvements and decarbonization of the existing production will be required (including fertilizer use, land use, and other sources of emissions)—which will be substantial, but not impossible to achieve.

New routes have emerged to lower the CI of ethanol production. These fall into several categories:

Emission-Based Ethanol – CO, Syngas ( a mixture of CO and Hydrogen), and/or CO2 can be fermented to ethanol. Several developers are pursing this technology, including LanzaTech, Jupeng Bio, and Synata Bio.
Cellulosic Ethanol – Though fully cellulosic ethanol had a rough few years (many did not, though a few did survive the last wave of commercialization), hybrid cellulosic ethanol is seeing significant interest (corn kernel fiber as a feedstock for additional ethanol).

“New” Applications are Spiking Interest

Ethanol applications are also spiking in interest. While conventional markets for fuel, solvent, and other industrial uses are somewhat mature, expanding use in several markets has the potential to greatly expand the addressable market. New applications spiking interest include:

Ethanol to Ethylene –historically produced from ethanol during the last century, and the first step in most SAF processes, ethanol to ethylene technology is getting a renewed look in with the view of reduced carbon intensity.
Ethanol to Jet (ETJ or ATJ) – while HVO is the current most commercially available route to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), ETJ is recently commercial and in a far better position long term with regard to feedstock availability. While HVO has a supply crunch regarding feedstock there is no such shortage of carbohydrate feedstocks—this is further increased when cellulosics and emissions are included as potential feedstocks.
Butadiene – also historically produced from ethanol during the last century, ethanol to butadiene technology is getting a renewed look in with the view of reduced carbon intensity. As much of the world’s butadiene is currently produced as a byproduct, such on-purpose lower CI production can allow for focused decarbonization.
Other Technologies – some other technologies at various stages of development are also showing various stages of interest. These include technologies such as ethanol to gasoline and ethanol to olefins.

Key Reports in this Space

NexantECA has been active producing many recent technoeconomic (Biorenewable Insights) and market focused (Market Insights and Market Scenario Planning) reports in this area:

Relevant to conventional ethanol production, advanced ethanol production and production/availability/decarbonization of feedstocks:

Relevant to potential integration with and decarbonization of ethanol production

Relevant to ethanol markets and downstream products

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